Exploration Odds

I've put together the numbers to look at how valuable each piece of equipment, and and combination really is. There are some pretty fantastic coincidences in here, considering that most of this balancing was a combination of intuition and playtesting. For example, the odds of finding and being able to kill something with a Sling and with an Atlatl are the same, the sling's accuracy makes up for its lack of damage dealing.

(As a side note, one missing piece from the Atlatl/Sling comparison is the scenario where the first tile that you find while hunting with a Sling is a deadly animal, which eliminates your second chance to search.)

Item / Weapon / Combo	Find	Kill	Success
Gatherer	76%	-	76%
Gatherer with 1 item	25%	-	25%
Gatherer w/ pouch + 2 items	48%	-	48%
Club	76%	52%	40%
Sling	45%	83%	57%
Spear	67%	64%	43%
Atlatl	76%	75%	57%
Bow&Arrow	76%	66%	50%
Sling+Club	76%	67%	51%
Sling+Spear	76%	71%	54%
Sling+Bow&Arrow	76%	69%	52%
Sling+Atlatl	76%	78%	59%
Club+Spear	76%	62%	47%
Spear+Bow&Arrow	76%	68%	52%

Find means the odds of drawing a tile that it is possible to take.
Kill is the average chance of taking the found tile (see the 3rd table in my previous post).
Success is the combined probability of taking a tile in a given turn.

All of these percentages assume no knowledge of what has previously been found. It does factor in exploring twice per turn (an initial failed attempt increases the odds of the next attempt because we're dealing with a pool of only 24 tiles).

Of course since these are blind odds, if you do know what it is you are hunting, or that a given tile is a plant vs. animal, your odds will increase significantly.

Art for the Animal Tiles

Next batch of sketches arrived today! We both, independently, had the idea that deadly animals be scary close-up drawings.

Squirrel, Rabbit, Deer

Boar, Bear, Wolf

Introducing Bob Garvin, Game Artist

I have hired upcoming game artist Bob Garvin (see his Online Portfolio or find him on deviantART as OmegaBob-158) to do the prototype artwork for this game!

I don't think I need to say any more, his artwork speaks for itself. Here are the initial sketches for the items & equipment:

Nuts, Torch, Herbs, Berries, Pouch

Meat, Hide, Atlatl, Spear, Club

Sling, Bow & Arrows

Closer Look at the Odds

3D6 Bell Curve

Time to peel back the curtain a bit here and look at the probability behind this game.


Weapon Statistics

Weapon	+ To Hit	Damage
Club	1	4
Sling	4	1
Spear	2	3
Atlatl	3	4
Bow&Arrow	3	2

Animal Statistics

Animal	Roll To Hit	Life
Squirrel	13	1
Rabbit	12	1
Deer	10	2
Boar	11	3
Wolf	13	3
Bear	12	4

"To Hit" Statistics


Next look at odds of killing each animal  with each weapon / combo.

Weapon / Combo	Squirrel	Rabbit	Deer	Boar	Wolf	Bear
Club	38%	50%	74.1%	63%	38%	50%
Sling	74%	84%	91%*	-	-	-
Spear	50%	63%	84%	74%	50%	-
Atlatl	63%	74%	91%	84%	63%	74%
Bow&Arrow	63%	74%	91%	70%*	40%*	55%*
Sling+Bow&Arrow*	-	-	-	76%*	46%*	-
Sling+Spear*	-	-	-	-	-	52%*

* = requires 2 shots (and 2 movement)

What's Next?
I'll look at the odds of exploring and finding something that you could take/kill depending on what equipment you are carrying. And then I'll pick apart the odds of finding and actually successfully taking/killing it.

The Odds of Hitting a Wolf with a Club

Handy little Dice&Coin Odds Calculator iOS app for anyone who wants to cheat at this game (or just level the playing field with those of us who have been working with these numbers since childhood).

Thanks for pointing this out Spencer!

Notes from Thirtieth Playtest!

Playtest 30

Played a three player game with Eddy, Dan, and myself.

Today's Rules:

1. Random Village placement based on start player roll.
2. Hunt or Gather prediction is a personal goal, you get 5 points if you score higher in the one you said.
3. Atlatl costs 4

Observations

• With personal goals (hunt or gather) you have a lot more control over your destiny, and so it shapes how you play the game.
• Random start seems cool, as does bigger board. Still want to see someone try a trailblazing to the far end of the board strategy. Also want to try irregularly shaped board spaces.
• Costs of equipment make for tough decisions. You get 5 points, but lots of things cost 3, and only Arrows cost 2, which can't be used by themselves. Pouches are expensive, but I think they should be.

Next Steps

1. Work on Exploration Tile distribution. Right now the numbers are balanced plant vs. animal values, but at the end of the game there are a bunch of animals on the board (they had been cleaned up in this photo.)
2. Design irregularly shaped board

Extended Board

Here is a new board, or rather set of boards, based on yesterday's playtesting:

Click for Detail

I've changed a couple things here:

1. I've moved the Village onto it's own board to make the exploration area larger, and wrapped the score track around both boards.
2. I've removed the built-in village squares from the exploration board, and numbered the rows & columns.

New Setup Rules

Players roll 2 dice to determine who goes first. The highest number also determines which row along the longest edge of the board the village will start in. The player who will go last rolls one die to determine which column the village will start in. The last player places one village marker on that space, and another marker on any adjacent space.